Campaign Girls!
It’s hard to believe with the thicket of campaign signs along every highway in Maryland (and lots of byways), but the real campaign for Governor is just getting ready to begin. With that in mind, it’s informative to look at the results of a recent interview poll by Gonzales Research and Marketing. Gonzales is a relatively small firm with an impressive list of clients from all parts of the political spectrum. Past or current clients range from the American Petroleum Institute to the Humane Society of the United States and from Progressive Maryland to the Maryland Automobile Dealers Association.
Their most recent poll in Maryland was conducted July 13th through July 21st. A total of 807 likely voters around the state were intereviewed by phone. the margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.5% (i.e., there is a 95% probability that the true figures would fall within this range.)
The majority of Marylanders (52%) feel that the economy is the number one issue facing the state – far higher than the 9% who say it is the budget deficit, 7% who say education, 7% who say traffic and 5% who say taxes. While this is certainly disturbing news for the incumbent, it is also bad news for Republicans who have been hammering the tax issue for the past four years.
Marylanders seem reasonably happy with the job Governor O’Malley has been doing; 48% approve of his performance while 39% disapprove. This would appear to be good news for the Governor because a decision to elect a new governor implies a decision to fire the current governor. There doesn’t appear to be widespread sentiment to do that.
A plurality of those surveyed, 45%, say they will vote to re-elect Governor O’Malley while 42% say they will vote for former governor Ehrlich. While some would say this is a statistical tie because it falls within the margin of error, that is not the case. It is possible that the real figure is 43.5% for each but it is equally probably that it will be 46.5% for O’Malley and 40.5% for Ehrlich. In any case, only 19% of Democrats say they will vote for Ehrlich. Given the large preponderance of Democrats in Maryland, he will have to do much better to win.
So what does Ehrlich have to do to win? Realistically he has to improve his performance in Montgomery County, do as well in the Baltimore suburbs as he did in 2002 and supress turnout in Prince Georges County and Baltimore City. Don’t be suprised if you see lots of voter challenges and issues about registration raised in those two counties.
O’Malley needs to hold onto his Democratic base, try to limit Ehrlich margins on the Eastern Shore, in Western Maryland and in the Baltimore suburbs and get good turnout among African-American voters who support him by 75% to 11%. There is no Obama on the ballot this year to bring out lots of minority voters, but there is a crowded race for County Executive in Prince George’s County. Unfortunately for O’Malley, all of the leading candidates are Democrats and the race will be decided by the September primary election.
O’Malley’s other big advantage is money. At last report, O’Malley had substantially more cash on hand than Ehrlich and, while they’ve both been furiously raising money since then, it appears he still has a strong advantage. Look for O’Malley to go on the air throughout the state in late September and October as well as flooding the state with calls. While many people don’t like them, both strategies are proven vote getters. O’Malley also has a strong campaign organization which, even now, has volunteers going door to door in key areas.
If you’re interested in looking at the details of the poll, you can find them here.