Can Ehrlich Claim Victory in November?
It looks like Bob Ehrlich has a daunting task ahead of him. Since he lost the governorship to Martin O’Malley in 2006, more than a quarter million new democrats have registered to vote in Maryland. Overall, the democrats have more than a 2 to 1 advantage in registered voters. And unlike 2002, when he edged out Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, he is running this year against a skilled politician – one who beat him soundly four years ago. A recent Washington Post poll shows O’Malley up by 8 points.
He does have the advantage that O’Malley is the incumbent in what is shaping up to be an anti-incumbent year, but with his long history in politics, including stints as Governor Of Maryland and Member of Congress, he can hardly claim to be an outsider.
Anyone looking at the race can see that his only hope is to run as a moderate and try to peel away fifteen to twenty percent of the democrats while wrapping up all the independents and republicans. But the rise of the Tea Party, whose members seem to be looking for a candidate a bit to the right of Genghis Khan is complicating his run to the center. He can’t simultaneously speak approvingly of the lunatic ‘birther’ movement and still reach out to the sophisticated and educated voters in the DC and Baltimore suburbs. He also needs to raise a lot of money to compete and, as dedicated as the teapartiers are, I don’t see them contributing big bucks to his campaign.
Ehrlich gets to pick his own running mate and it will be interesting to see who he chooses. If he chooses a conservative white male republican from the Shore, or Western Maryland or up in Harford County, he has conceded the race. While such a pick might rally his base to him, it will do nothing to persuade the swing voters down in Howard, Montgomery or Baltimore counties to support him. He has to choose a moderate to appeal to those voters, even if it angers those on the right.
He’s also got to root for the economy to stay in the doldrums. If Maryland’s economy has improved significantly by election day, he can kiss the governorship goodbye.
The other big unknown is how early voting will affect the election. Having a single day for voting and having it on a workday has always helped to suppress voter turnout. With a full week of early voting, including a Saturday, there is significant potential to increase turnout. Both parties are trying to figure out exactly how to deal with this. Since increased turnout generally benefits the democrats, who have more registered voters and more low-income voters, look for the Republicans to use any means they can to suppress turnout. They will challenge voters, challenge election board rules, use misinformation and any other trick they can muster to keep turnout down. The trick for democrats will be to get voters to the polls in large numbers. If they can do that, they will sweep to victory, not only in statewide races, but also in General Assembly and local races.
So the three things to watch are how well Ehrlich positions himself as a moderate, who he chooses for a running mate and how well his party can suppress voter turnout. If he does a good job at all three, he has a chance.